In this blog post, we examine whether we are truly living in an era of peace and whether we are overlooking invisible threats.
Today, most people do not live in fear of being massacred tomorrow for no apparent reason, nor are they gripped by the terror that war will break out and they will lose everything. They can also travel over mountains without worrying that a Robin Hood-like figure will appear to raid the wealth of the rich. They do not wish for war or a major revolution to overturn society; they hope that matters will be resolved without bloodshed. We are educated and live with the awareness that the outbreak of war is inhumane and must not be allowed to happen. Modern society is so closely interconnected that it is called a “global village,” and events affecting one country now have a ripple effect on others. Connections between nations have been further strengthened through trade and diplomacy. Even between nations that are geographically distant or hold differing ideologies, relationships have become inseparable.
In this context, modern society faces new challenges unlike anything we have experienced in previous eras. In particular, new types of threats that have emerged alongside technological advancements are affecting our lives in ways distinct from the past. For example, as the flow of information has accelerated dramatically with the development of the internet, we are increasingly likely to experience warfare not only in the physical realm but also in cyberspace. Invisible wars—such as hacking, cyberterrorism, and information manipulation—are instilling new fears in our society. These threats amplify conflicts between nations and, at times, possess even greater destructive power than traditional warfare.
Some people refer to this era as an age of peace. They argue that we are living in an era of true peace, not mere peace. They claim this is true peace because not only has the number of deaths caused by war and violence decreased, but also because most societies no longer accept war. Of course, according to statistics from certain organizations, mortality rates from violence or war have dropped significantly, and in many cases, people are the ones who bring about their own deaths. Furthermore, it is argued that as networks between nations have grown tighter, the benefits of war have diminished, and as nations lose their independence, the likelihood of any single country starting a war has decreased. But can the reduction in international conflicts and the decline in deaths from war and violence truly serve as indicators of peace? Is our failure to perceive peace simply because we fail to consider the lives of people in the past? Does the strengthening of international networks truly lead only to peace?
It is difficult to make such a definitive conclusion. From the days when people hunted and gathered, through the advent of agriculture, and up to the emergence of the internet following the Industrial Revolution, the nature of life has changed so drastically that considering the past has become almost meaningless. Through the cognitive revolution, humans achieved conscious development and created an order of imagination. Since then, we have continued to create new orders of imagination, accumulate new types of knowledge, and develop technology. Ultimately, a consciousness and way of life different from the past have emerged. These changes in the nature of life have also altered the nature of the threats we face. Yet some people not only fail to distinguish between peace in the past and peace today but also compare peace solely based on the number of deaths caused by war and violence. This overlooks harm that does not result in casualties and also ignores potential future harm. Of course, from a cultural perspective, in modern times, not only intellectuals but also the general public support peace. A major difference from the past is that people view war not as a necessary evil but as something that must be rejected. As a result, large-scale wars between nations involving the use of weapons have become rare since 1945. Even when the great imperialist powers, Britain and France, dismantled their empires, the frequency of wars decreased compared to the past. Unfortunately, the wars between Russia and Ukraine and between Israel and Hamas are ongoing, but globally, the total number of wars—including civil wars and coups—has decreased.
However, we cannot say that the decline in full-scale wars involving weapons equates to peace. From stone tools and wooden spears and bows in prehistoric times, to iron swords following the discovery of iron, and then to guns and cannons, the evolution of weapons has not stopped there; new forms of weapons continue to emerge. Through the Scientific Revolution, humanity has made astonishing discoveries; we have not only created nuclear weapons but also developed chemical and biological weapons. We simply have not used them yet. Furthermore, it has become possible to inflict harm using the internet, which surrounds our daily lives. As the global village has emerged, placing nations in a unique situation where they exert even greater political and economic influence on one another, the ability to use this to pressure rival nations has also gained greater significance. When retaliatory trade measures are intensified against a rival nation, the greater the dependence on that nation, the greater the damage suffered. Furthermore, it has become possible to paralyze an adversary’s computer networks through cyberterrorism, including hacking and viruses. These are new forms of weapons. We can no longer gauge the extent of damage solely by the presence of visible casualties; these threats surround our lives just as much as the threats of war and violence did in the past. Currently, these weapons are being used covertly, and when these hidden threats explode, the damage is difficult to predict. The reason we do not feel fear or worry is likely simply because we have become accustomed to this series of events, which occur frequently all over the world.
Estonia, which had been experiencing conflict since gaining independence from Russia in 2007, suffered a DDoS attack by Russia that paralyzed its national computer network, leading to the paralysis of state functions for several days. Around 2010, the United States used a piece of malware called Stuxnet to damage Iran’s nuclear facilities—specifically, the centrifuges used to enrich uranium—while making it difficult to identify the cause of the malfunctions. Terrorist attacks utilizing advanced technology struck invisibly, inflicted massive damage, and vanished. Furthermore, by exploiting the increased interdependence between nations to tighten trade regulations, the practice of waging what amounts to trade wars to inflict harm has intensified. The U.S. and the EU refuse to recognize China’s market economy status and are strengthening trade barriers. Meanwhile, since the Trump administration, the U.S. and China have been waging a trade war by imposing fines on each other for antitrust violations and reinforcing trade barriers. The ripple effects of this conflict extend beyond China and the U.S., impacting the global economy.
While weapons like nuclear arms—which have evolved from conventional forms—are controlled through conventions and treaties, this does not mean we can rest easy. Both chemical and biological weapons and nuclear weapons have advanced to the point where they possess enough power to completely devastate a nation. In particular, with colorless and odorless chemical and biological weapons like anthrax, we could be attacked without even realizing what is happening. The Chemical Weapons Convention and the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty do not fully protect us. In particular, countries that do not possess nuclear weapons must constantly be on guard against the military movements of nuclear-armed states. If they were to launch an attack, we would have no means of defending ourselves. We likely feel that the level of fear is low and that we are in a state of peace simply because we accept all of this as normal and familiar. It is a delusion to assume that the absence of war equates to peace.
We live in a reality where interdependence among nations has strengthened and independence has weakened within the global community. However, just because we live in a global village does not mean we are truly pursuing common interests. We have merely become more accessible to one another. Great powers can at any moment sever these connections and shift their stance to secure their own interests. Weaker nations, too, may attempt covert attacks at any time to break free from their assigned status. The fact that significant damage can be inflicted at the national level—even without casualties—is often overlooked. Furthermore, under the protection of treaties, we mistake the current temporary state—where no casualties occur—for peace rather than fear. What we see is not the whole picture. Just because something happens beneath the surface or cannot be verified at present does not mean we can deny its existence. This is an era where we cannot prepare because threats are invisible, yet we must always be on guard; thus, we feel greater fear and must build our capabilities. We do not live in an era of peace.
