This blog post examines how the ability to read megatrends becomes a key strategy for seizing opportunities and reducing anxiety within market inequalities that cannot be explained by individual ability and effort alone.
Opportunities to make money, follow megatrends, the opportunities are there
I’m W, turning thirty this year. I consider myself someone with decent ability and luck. While I didn’t graduate from a prestigious university, I was fortunate enough to land a job at a promising company and accumulate assets relatively quickly. Now, over a decade after graduating, my annual salary has reached around 200 million won, and I’ve fully paid off the mortgage on the apartment I purchased under my name. The current market value of that apartment is approximately 2 billion won.
Of course, I’m not at a level where I can live without any financial worries right now, but I still think I fall within the middle class category. In a narrow sense, if you have a home, a car, and live without major concerns about food and drink, could you say that’s a somewhat successful life?
Yet, I feel constantly anxious. I feel like I’ve put in all the effort I could to get here, but the fact that the result is ultimately just one apartment weighs heavily on my mind. I want to accumulate more, but I’m not confident that better opportunities than these will come again. Sometimes it feels like I’ve already used up all the ‘luck’ I could have in life. If an unexpected event or accident were to strike, I’d be at a loss about where and how to get back up. The fear that I might lose everything I have now overwhelms me.
The fear of falling into the lower class at any moment
Some people live in expensive homes due to skyrocketing apartment prices yet still feel life is difficult. They are the so-called ‘anxious rich’—those whose asset size has grown but whose quality of life scarcely improves.
Social polarization has now deepened beyond imagination. While society’s overall wealth has grown rapidly, many people live their entire lives working their fingers to the bone without ever being able to afford a home. Even those who manage to join the middle class must endure extreme psychological pressure and stress, living with the constant fear of falling back into the lower class at any moment.
The core reason for Mr. W’s anxiety is the extreme scarcity of liquid funds and financial assets at his disposal. The bulk of his assets are tied up in real estate, which is difficult to move. In this situation, even a slowdown or halt in home price appreciation can heighten anxiety. Should prices fall, he would be immediately faced with the dilemma of where and how to generate cash.
People often say, “Life is just too hard.” But is your life truly more arduous than that of workers enduring long hours on global manufacturing floors? Or can you honestly claim it’s harder than the lives of farmers directly exposed to climate and market fluctuations? They struggle through each day without even the luxury of glancing up at the sky, yet their income often barely covers basic subsistence.
So is earning money truly that grueling? In truth, earning money itself isn’t inherently difficult. In a rapidly changing society, ‘opportunity’ plays a far more crucial role than individual ability for those craving success. A structure where personal ability directly translates to income only holds in relatively stable societies. The reason technicians command high wages in developed countries is precisely because the trajectory of social development is stable. Only in such an environment does ability receive greater recognition than opportunity.
When young, we believe that effort alone can achieve anything. But as we age and gain experience, we come to realize that there are clearly domains effort alone cannot overcome. In this process, we also learn how crucial it is to understand the essence of things, the flow of events, and the laws by which the world operates.
Many wealthy individuals attribute their success entirely to effort. Yet, countless others in this society, despite exerting equal effort, live their entire lives without achieving anything substantial. Ultimately, we must acknowledge the existence of an ‘invisible hand’ in the market that governs the distribution of wealth. That is precisely what we call ‘trends’.
Whether starting a business, seeking employment, or making investments, riding the trend correctly is crucial. The same effort can yield completely different results. Only by accurately reading the flow and seizing opportunities can one expect better outcomes. Conversely, no matter how diligent or capable one is, achieving results is difficult in an industry structurally blocked from growth potential. That’s why trends matter.
Truly smart people aren’t just those with good memory or quick calculations. They are those who embrace new environments with an open mind, flexibly shift their thinking and strategies to match the changes, and are always prepared to seize opportunities. Ultimately, the biggest obstacle to human growth isn’t the external environment, but oneself.
Knowing trends is important
Trends have several interesting characteristics. First, trends lose significance once they are fully revealed. Spotting a trend too early rarely leads to tangible opportunities, while recognizing it too late means losing competitive advantage.
This explains why many intelligent, insightful people still fail to make money. They read the signs early but cannot endure the time needed for the market to mature. When the system and environment aren’t ready, prolonged waiting breeds frustration, eventually leading to nihilism and withdrawal from the market. By the time the door of opportunity finally opens, they are often no longer present.
Those who look too far ahead are often likened to prophets. Yet, insight that is excessively ahead of its time can sometimes invite disaster. Historically, there are numerous examples of visionaries who were ahead of their era meeting tragic ends.
Conversely, once a trend has developed to the point where it is visible to everyone, it becomes difficult for it to remain an opportunity. The moment truth becomes common knowledge, the first-mover advantage within it vanishes.
Based on these characteristics, the lesson we can draw is clear: the importance of foresight. If one can detect the flow and act before others take notice, opportunity is naturally seized.
Many people claim, “I knew this would happen long ago.” But such statements hold little real meaning. The essence of success lies in accurate judgment and boldly ‘entering’ at the right moment aligned with that judgment.
The second characteristic is the overwhelming destructive power inherent in trends. Once a current forms, riding that wave itself is often less difficult than imagined. This is why emerging industries often witness established giants crumbling without significant effort, while new players seize the throne in one fell swoop.
Unlike the era when massive capital and energy were poured into defeating competitors within the existing order, it has become commonplace for entities emerging from entirely different domains to reshape entire ecosystems with a single idea or technology.
When trends shift, the phenomenon of ‘the shrimp getting crushed between the whales’ also emerges. As contactless payments and mobile financial services became ubiquitous, cash usage plummeted. Consequently, various underground industries and small livelihood businesses that depended on cash transactions lost their foothold. The rapid growth of the delivery industry also transformed the consumption structure of convenience foods and instant meals.
The spread of the online environment was not merely a technological change but a true ‘revolution of the times’. It fundamentally altered existing production methods and distribution structures, pushing the established giants that once reigned supreme into the background. This is precisely the outcome of the fierce battles waged by trends.
How can trends be predicted?
Trends are inherently sudden, appear coincidental, and are difficult to forecast. Nevertheless, people who have accumulated wealth through trends clearly exist. They can be broadly divided into three categories.
The first category are the leaders. They capture market movements with innate intuition, read structural changes, and materialize them with powerful execution. They are individuals unafraid of adventure and failure, who hesitate not even in the face of risk.
The second group consists of followers. They recognize the potential in leaders and willingly follow their lead. These are people prepared to accept failure, possessing the tenacity to never give up, and high combat effectiveness. The choice made by Cai Chongxin, a key figure at Alibaba Group, exemplifies this well. Having followed an elite path to a stable position, he saw the potential in the early-stage Alibaba and boldly gave up his existing conditions. His judgment and participation played a decisive role in Alibaba’s growth into a global enterprise.
The third category is the opportunists. These are people who accidentally seize opportunities within the flow of trends. More often than not, they are swept along by the current, led by someone else, rather than proactively choosing their direction. Nevertheless, they ultimately become beneficiaries of the trend.
Not long ago, I met an acquaintance my age. He had once worked at a global telecommunications company but had left to prepare for starting his own business. At the time, that company was highly regarded in the industry, and getting hired there was considered a major achievement. Conversely, many who couldn’t get hired there turned to other options. As time passed and the market landscape completely shifted, those initial choices dramatically diverged their respective life paths.
This case demonstrates that individual ability alone does not determine everything. Even with the same level of capability at the same time, outcomes can be entirely different depending on which current one rides. This is precisely the power of trends.
Learning is the fundamental power to understand the world
Now, let’s return to the initial dilemma. The world is constantly changing, and trends shift relentlessly alongside it. Having already achieved a degree of success, what path can you choose to pursue even greater success?
I fully understand your feeling that you’ve used up all your luck. Because luck never stays in the same place. That’s why the more capable a person is, the more they strive to shape their own future. Yet the world is always full of unknowns, and that very fact burdens us with worry and pressure. If the world keeps changing, and the pace of that change keeps accelerating, standing still is no longer a safe choice. We must change along with the world.
Warren Buffett’s investment track record will likely stand as one of the greatest in human history. Yet no one can guarantee that the investment approach he chose over the past decade will remain equally applicable for the next ten years. This is precisely why he continues to study and learn relentlessly.
The early 21st century witnessed the most significant changes and advancements in online technology. Yet Warren Buffett deliberately avoided investing in high-tech stocks for a long time, judging it to be beyond his circle of competence. Consequently, he undoubtedly missed many opportunities.
Yet, between late 2016 and early 2018, he significantly increased his holdings of Apple stock in multiple transactions. As a result, his stake in Apple once reached as high as 20 percent of the total.
This move represented a deliberate departure from his long-held conviction against investing in high-tech companies. So why did he make this decision? He explained in an interview:
“When we invest, we don’t start with the question, ‘Should we buy more high-tech stocks?’ Instead, we first examine whether this company possesses a sustainable competitive advantage and whether we are overvaluing it relative to other investors. We didn’t invest in Apple simply because it’s a high-tech company. I analyzed and evaluated a series of questions: the value of the business ecosystem they’ve built, how sustainable that ecosystem is, and what potential threats lie within it. To do this, there’s no need to go out and buy an iPhone, take it apart, and analyze each internal component. Instead, analyzing consumer behavior and consumer psychology is far more important.”
Regarding this statement, his longtime partner Charlie Munger remarked:
“The fact that Buffett bought Apple stock is clear evidence that he is constantly studying, even at this very moment.”
Charlie Munger often cites an anecdote to emphasize the importance of learning. It concerns Max Planck, the founder of quantum mechanics.
After winning the Nobel Prize in Physics, Planck traveled around Germany giving lectures. But the content of his lectures hardly ever changed. Mostly, he talked about the theories of quantum physics. As time went on, even his chauffeur could almost recite the lectures by heart. One day, the chauffeur said to Planck:
“Professor, your lectures are always so similar that they’re getting a bit tedious. How about I give the next one in Munich for you? You can just wear my hat and sit in the front row.”
After a moment’s thought, Planck accepted his proposal. On the day of the lecture, the driver delivered the lengthy talk on quantum physics flawlessly, without a single falter.
When the Q&A session began after the lecture, physics professors in the audience posed extremely difficult questions. He reportedly answered as follows.
“I hadn’t anticipated such simple questions emerging in a highly developed city like Munich. Well, I’ll ask my driver to answer this question.”
This anecdote clearly illustrates the essence of knowledge. The world’s knowledge is broadly divided into two types. One is knowledge like Planck’s—the knowledge of someone who truly ‘knows.’ This is the result of independent thought, understanding, and accumulation; it is the very essence of that person’s ability. The other is the chauffeur’s knowledge. He hasn’t understood the knowledge; he has merely mastered the tricks.
Of course, he might possess excellent delivery skills or captivate an audience with a charming voice or demeanor. Yet the knowledge he holds is fundamentally ‘dead knowledge’.
Memorizing knowledge by rote may yield good test scores. But it rarely proves truly beneficial throughout life. We must broadly acquire diverse knowledge and connect it to form a single framework of thought within our minds. Only then can we instantly retrieve and apply the necessary knowledge from that framework when faced with any situation.
Of course, it’s not as easy as it sounds. Perhaps that’s why more and more people give up on learning. As a result, they drift, unable to keep pace with the changing world. Some cling only to past methods and familiar values. But they weren’t always like that either. That’s how difficult lifelong learning truly is.
The reason we must study constantly isn’t merely to keep our minds active. As time passes and our careers and abilities grow, we actually accumulate more biases and fixed ideas. Breaking these requires new knowledge. But shattering decades of formed thoughts and values with new knowledge, then reassembling them, is never simple.
When we were young, it felt like we could learn anything quickly and easily. But why does learning the same way become harder as we age? Imagine a pyramid of knowledge. The bottom layer is relatively easy to build, but climbing higher requires significantly more effort. As adults, we’ve already built our own knowledge pyramid, making even adding a few bricks difficult. So what should we do? We must replace existing bricks with new ones. Replacing and transforming knowledge is akin to altering a building’s framework. Naturally, it’s difficult.
Nevertheless, we must keep learning. The changes brought about by learning emerge very slowly, almost imperceptibly. Yet their impact is truly immense. Make learning a habit. Maintain an open mind before knowledge and adopt a humble attitude toward learning. Only then will the world before your eyes begin to appear far clearer than before.
Recall Steve Jobs’ words once more.
“Stay hungry, stay foolish.”
This statement remains as true today as ever. In the face of a changing world and an uncertain future, only those who never cease learning can stand at the door of the next opportunity.
